Just a thought prior to the VP debate on Thursday.
Sarah Palin will almost certainly perform higher than expectations. That's partly because her recent television exposure has set the bar so low, partly because the structure of the debate will help her to focus, and partly because her preparation will pay off. If she does better than expected she could win this debate, even if Senator Biden shows himself as the more competent of the two.
Presidential debates are unlike most other contests in this sense. Take an example from college football where a team that is supposed to lose by 40 points loses by only 20 points. They did better than expected, but clearly they are still the lesser team. They didn't win the game, they only beat the spread. I just hope that voters use the same criteria for the debate that they do in football. Governor Palin should not be declared the winner simply by beating the spread.
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2 comments:
Isn't it refreshing to know that we can acknowledge the spread, rather than simply saying she won because she exceeded our expectations of her thus far? I was surprised we didn't concede. Frankly, I had trouble sitting through the debate listening to her down-home speech thinking this woman could end up running this country - into the ground.
Thanks for the comment. Governor Palin didn't shift people's perceptions much during the debate. It was a safe environment that didn't lend itself to big swings in either direction. People must have taken the spread into account, because polls showed most giving the win to Senator Biden. It was nice to see people judging on the absolute merits and not the relative.
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